While the media has speculated for weeks about what North Korean troops might be doing in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, some outlets now allege they have been seen in combat. According to a November 5th article by Michael Dorgan and Caitlin McFall in Fox News, “Ukraine has engaged militarily for the first time with North Korean troops deployed to support Russia in its ongoing war with its neighbor, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday in a nightly address.” [1]
It's rumored by some outlets that around 10,000-12,000 North Korean troops may have joined the conflict. If true, this number would be a minor relief for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Russian forces have sustained considerable losses due to underestimating Ukraine's resilience. Initially confident that victory would come within days, Russia has instead seen the conflict continue since February 2022. When a nation has to rely on underfed troops from a notoriously isolated country in a humanitarian crisis, it’s a sign that things are not going well. Though Putin has nuclear weapons in reserve, the risks and global consequences likely keep this option off the table.
Historically, North Korea has engaged in minor skirmishes, but it has not been involved in a major international conflict since the 1950s. While the DPRK troops are rigorously trained for Korean Peninsula engagements, their exposure to ground combat with other nations remains limited. Not that Kim Jong-Un seems concerned about that. If this sounds perplexing, read on.
Despite lacking cutting-edge technology, North Korea’s military boasts one of the largest active-duty forces globally. “The KPA, with an estimated 1.3 million active personnel, is one of the world's largest militaries, behind only far bigger countries such as China and the United States.” [2] North Korea is reportedly receiving technology, money, and what it sees as an iron-clad alliance with Russia in exchange for soldiers.
Right now, the biggest winner in the Russia-Ukraine war might just be Kim Jong-Un. Why? For one, he could even send 100,000 troops to assist Russia without depleting North Korea’s own capabilities, as most of its military focus remains on the Korean Peninsula. And he won’t likely target South Korea any time soon, as doing so would undoubtedly bring U.S. forces into the conflict.
Kim is likely delighted by this new alliance. He’s gaining funds, he can afford losses, and he’s acquiring a powerful ally in Russia. China has long been an ally, but Russia’s current desperation offers Kim unique advantages, particularly given Russia’s veto power on the U.N. Security Council. China and Russia both have this power, but while China might exercise caution, Putin now has little room for maneuvering.
With Russia on his side, Kim can more freely test weapons, provoke South Korea, or even openly test nuclear weapons. Any attempts to sanction or restrict North Korea would face obstacles with Russia ready to veto at the U.N.
Kim is winning, hands down—or he was. Yesterday, Donald Trump was re-elected President of the United States.
Sorry, Kim. Not today.
[1] Michael Dorgan and Caitlin McFall, "Ukraine, North Korean Troops Clash for First Time; Zelensky Warns of Escalation," Fox News, November 5, 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-north-korean-troops-clash-first-time-zelenskyy-warns-escalation.
[2] Reuters, "What Are North Korea's Military Capabilities and How Powerful Are They?" Reuters, October 25, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-military-is-one-worlds-largest-how-powerful-is-it-2024-10-25/.
